Temperatures may not be so frosty this winter

Sure, we’ve had our share of gusty winds and cold temperatures, but we could be in for a warmer than normal winter.

The latest three-month forecasts from state climatologist Al Dutcher show a good majority of the state should see above-normal temperatures this winter.

Forecasts indicate the eastern two-thirds of Nebraska is projected to have above-normal temperatures, said Al Dutcher, state climatologist in the university’s Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources.

“The highest of this probability is assigned to the southeastern one-third of the state that includes Omaha, Lincoln, Grand Island, Hastings and all areas east and south of there,” he said.

So, what’s average?

Data from the High Plains Regional Climate Center shows the average high temperature for Fremont is 36.4 degrees in December, 32.8 degrees in January and 37.5 degrees in February. Average low temperatures are 17.2 in December, 12.5 in January and 16.5 in February.

When it comes to precipitation, the three-month forecasts show the southern one-fourth of Nebraska looking at a slight likelihood of above-normal precipitation in an area bounded by Imperial, southeastward to Falls City, Dutcher said. Lincoln, Omaha and Grand Island are considered to have equal chances of being above normal, but Hastings would fall in the above normal area.

For precipitation, the entire state is indicated to have a slight probability of being above normal with the highest probability assigned to the northwest quarter of the Panhandle.

“The 90-day forecast is not adjusted with the new 30-day forecast issued at the end of November,” he said. “However, if you look at the 30-day forecast that was issued at mid-month, it indicated the entire state with above-normal temperatures. So, the shift in the two-week forecast was to a cooler bias outside of areas indicated with above normal temperatures.

“This leads me to believe that the 90-day forecast is very optimistic in terms of temperatures.”

Although it will depend on snow accumulation and temperatures, a white Christmas could be in store with numerous chances for snow this month.

“When we talk about the snow probability for Christmas, we are only talking about a one in four chance in the southeastern corner of the state and a one in two chance across extreme northeast Nebraska and along the South Dakota-Nebraska border as it progressively increases across the state from south to north.”